Recently in the American Empire…
Give peace a chance?
Arab states are readying a proposal to end the Israel-Hamas war and prevent a wider conflict engulfing the Middle East, with details to be announced within weeks. The plan has been discussed with Western nations and would include their agreement to formally recognize a Palestinian state, or support the Palestinians being granted full membership of the UN. On offer for Israel is the long sought after prize of a formalisation of ties with Saudi Arabia, an imminent likelihood before the Hamas attack of October 7th. The move represents a welcome intervention from the Arab community and another example of MBS positioning himself, and Saudi Arabia, as the vital powerbroker in the region, and would be disastrous for Iran whose influence would be further marganilised. The move would force Netanyahu into a corner, with any agreement on Palestinian statehood guaranteed to face resistance from his right-wing allies in the Knesset. Can pragmatism, compromise and human decency transcend hatred, revenge, and anger, or will this be the latest in a long line of failed attempts to build a lasting peace in the holy land? For the US this represents a sliver of hope for a rare foreign policy victory for President Biden, who must finally apply some pressure to his intransigent Israeli allies. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the crisis as an “inflection point” for the Middle East that requires hard decisions, imploring Israel to “seize the opportunity that we believe is there.” Rising tensions
The US and UK have launched military strikes in Yemen in reaction to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. The Houthis have been increasingly bold in their actions to disrupt this vital artery for international trade, supported with weaponry from their Iranian benefactors. There will be fears of potential blowback in both countries as the Houthis attempt to co-opt the Palestinian situation to coalesce support for oppressed Muslims to further their own goals. Twenty years on from the disastrous decision to invade Iraq, the US and UK must proceed with caution to avoid being dragged into another protracted and unwinnable conflict in the Middle East. Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the world, and has been riven by a brutal civil war for almost a decade. The fragile ceasefire between the Saudi/UAE backed government and the Houthis expired in October 2023, but the fighting has largely remained on hold despite the recent increased tensions. Tensions rise elsewhere in the region as Iran launched airstrikes against Jaish Al-Adl, an armed group near Panjguy city, an area of south-west Pakistan that borders Iran. Pakistan responded with strikes of its own, targeting armed groups in the Sistan-Baluchistan province of Iran and killing at least nine people. Where did the weapons go?
A Pentagon audit released on Thursday 11th January admits that the US cannot track more than $1 billion of weapons and military equipment given to Ukraine due to shortfalls in required monitoring. This represents a staggering 59% of the total $1.7 billion in defensive aid that the US has provided to Ukraine since the Russian invasion in 2022. The Pentagon maintain that there is no “Credible evidence of illicit diversion of US-provided advanced conventional weapons from Ukraine,” but it is a worrying revelation in a country with notorious and well documented issues of corruption. It also vindicates the warnings of Senator Rand Paul and former representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii (which you can soon read on page 159 of The End of the American Empire) who were labelled as apologists for Putin for raising this issue. It raises a further question of where to draw the line between expediency and recklessness in times of heightened action and quick decisions. There is a difference between delay for delays sake, and sensible precautions taken to ensure dangerous weapons do not fall into the wrong hands.
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