Never say neverWhilst the defections of RFK Jnr and Tulsi Gabbard from Democrats to Republicans signified a rare phenomenon, moves the other way have been seen ever since Trump descended the golden escalator and turned the US political establishment upside down. The most vocal of these soon adopted the moniker of “Never Trumpers”, and they began to voice their objections to Trump as soon as his candidacy became a realistic possibility during the 2016 Republican primaries. Some of these, like Mitt Romney and Liz Cheney, have stayed the course, whilst others, most notably Trump’s VP pick JD Vance, have since backtracked…as they say, never say never. Vance is not alone, as a succession of Trump’s political opponents have spoken out against him and the danger they believe he represents, only to turn tail, swallow the derisive nicknames and kiss the ring later down the line. Here is looking at you, “Little” Marco Rubio, “Lyin” Ted Cruz, Ron De “Sanctimonious” Santis and Nikki “Nimbra” Haley. For the resolute “Never Trumpers” " it is not simply a case of a handful of disaffected Republicans acting solo. Moderate conservatives and former Republican members established the Lincoln Project in December 2019 to oppose Trump and Trumpism. The group supported Joe Biden in his successful campaign and is supporting Kamala Harris this time. Another political action committee run by former Republican operatives named “The Republican Voters Against Trump” is spending considerable sums in swing states to emphasise their reasons for deserting Trump and the party. An attack ad released by the Harris campaign this week spliced video testimony from the most senior officials from Trump’s time in the White House. The video features warnings from VP Mike Pence, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, National Security Adviser John Bolton and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley and serves as damning testimony from those who were closest to President Trump during his time in office. At the DNC, six prominent Republicans appeared on stage to endorse Kamala Harris and urge the members of their party to switch allegiance and do the same. Interestingly, these speakers offered very similar reasoning for their defection to those given by RFK Jnr and Tulsi Gabbard, highlighting the changes in their party and the threat that this party and its standard bearer now posed to democracy and the ongoing survival of the Republic. This brings us to the crux of the issue. Most people believe that the American Civil War fought over the moral issue of slavery, but the reality is more complicated. Slavery was the key element, but ultimately, civil war occurred because both sides saw the other as an existential threat to their survival. Whilst I am not stating that a second Civil war is imminent or inevitable, the divide between both parties is now a chasm and only growing, and defectors from both sides using the same logic should be viewed as a warning sign. Do these endorsements matter?In a less febrile political atmosphere, the underlying arguments for these defections and subsequent endorsements would likely be examined in greater detail. This is not where we find ourselves in the American Empire of 2024, however. Trump has long labelled all those he deemed insufficiently loyal to his takeover of the Republican party as RINOS…Republicans in name only. On January 6th 2021, Donald Trump Jnr spelt this out clearly, warning that “(to)…the people who did nothing to stop the steal…This isn’t their Republican party anymore! This is Donald Trump’s Republican party!” Do voters pay attention to the opinions of those who Trump has tarred as RINOs, or do their warnings get labelled as disgruntled sour grapes from “losers”? There will be many Republicans who have chosen to abandon Trump for their own reasons. While these endorsements may offer confirmation that they are not alone in their rationale, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on voter numbers. In a tight race, however, every vote counts, and the Democrats will continue to highlight these endorsements to swing the independent or undecided voters who ultimately will decide this election. The same lack of retrospection is on display within the Democrats, who, rather than seriously address the issues raised by RFK Jnr and Tulsi Gabbard, have chosen instead to dismiss them as extremists. In a more reflective atmosphere, one may raise an eyebrow at the endorsement of one-time Democrat bête noire and Iraq war mastermind Dick Cheney, asking whether the warnings of Gabbard and RFK Jnr regarding accusations of warmongering and a party in lockstep with the military-industrial complex do indeed carry weight. Celebrity endorsements There is a further example of political endorsement for us to examine briefly: celebrities. In the American Empire of 2024, the stars of stage, screen and sports are the modern equivalent to the heroes of civilisations past, with their every word and deed analysed 24/7. The Democrats have typically benefitted far more from their celebrity endorsements than Republicans, and this election cycle is no different. Famous names like Clooney, De Niro, and Streisand are amongst a crowded field endorsing Harris and hosting fundraisers to swell the election war chest. Taylor Swift, whose endorsement of Joe Biden in 2020 was credited for increasing younger voter turnout in a demographic that is typically hard to reach, endorsed Kamala Harris in the immediate aftermath of the Presidential debate earlier this week. For Trump, Billionaire entrepreneur and oft-crowned richest man on the planet, Elon Musk and wrestling icon Hulk Hogan are the highest profile supporters willing to publicly endorse his campaign, joining Kid Rock, Roseanne Barr and a few others. There are likely far more remaining under the parapet concerned about how an endorsement may affect their career prospects, a reality that Mandalorian star Gina Carano knows intimately. Whether we should care who a celebrity votes for is a valid question, but in a culture so obsessed with celebrity, it is an inevitable outcome. In many respects, Donald Trump perfectly represents the intersection between politics and celebrity that results from a culture so obsessed with fame and the famous. His candidacy was only viable due to the name recognition he enjoyed because he gained celebrity status by dispatching scores of hapless applicants on The Apprentice with his signature catchphrase, “You’re fired!” As the lines continue to blur between celebrity and politics, the phenomenon also works in reverse, as the Obamas are feted in the same manner as Hollywood royalty. Time will tell whether voters will once again clamour for substance over style or if the “celebrity candidate” is representative of the new normal. Oprah Winfrey and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson have both been mooted as potential future candidates, and this would represent the nadir of this phenomenon and should not be ruled out. Thanks!Thank you to everyone who has read along with these newsletters over the past 12 months and for your kind words of support regarding the book itself. Whilst I will not be posting further in this format, rest assured the insights and commentary will keep coming via my social media channels (see below!). Thanks again. Patrick.
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