Recently in the American Empire…
A Tale of Two Trumps
Primary season has begun with Donald Trump demolishing the field in the first primary contest in Iowa on January 15th. We saw an unusual version of Trump, (relatively) magnanimous in his victory speech calling for unity, whilst also reinforcing his “credentials” as bulwark against migration across the Southern border. Short lived darling of the Republican establishment, Ron De Santis, told supporters that they had “punched their ticket out of Iowa” …only to withdraw from the race before even reaching New Hampshire, endorsing Trump before heading back to Florida to lick his wounds. Trump gladly accepted the endorsement and went so far as to congratulate “terrific” De Santis for “doing a very good job.” Commentators could be mistaken for believing that this was a new, more statesman-like version of the former president: Trump 2.0 if you will. These commentators would be proved wrong within less than a week as Trump returned to form, celebrating a crushing victory in New Hampshire by launching into an angry diatribe aimed at surviving challenger, Nikki Haley. It remains to be seen what will happen when Haley inevitably bows out; will she kiss the ring like De Santis and be showered with platitudes or exit the stage with Trump’s insults still ringing in her ears? From Iowa to Ipswich
Conscription! The word has been ringing in ears across Europe over the past 2 weeks, and forcing a denial that it was official government policy in the UK from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. So just what is going on? Will young British men and women be called up to serve against their will, swapping Call of Duty for active duty? The answer is likely not, and the entire question can be linked back to events in Iowa on January 15th. It was only 3 days after the Iowa primary that senior NATO figures (both current and former) began to use the “c word”, loudly and regularly. These figures have longer memories than most commentators, and recall Trump’s disdain toward the alliance in his first term, regularly threatening to leave it and let other nations protect themselves. Fearing a Trump return, NATO has firmly pressed the panic button and by invoking the spectre of conscription, they are aiming to wrestle additional funding out of reluctant governments in member states. Will conscription return to the UK to fight a war against a nuclear armed Russia? Never say never, but I believe it is highly implausible. It would be likely to lead to severe prison overcrowding, if a recent Yougov survey is instructive of the wider feeling: 38% of under 40s said they would refuse conscription in the event of a new World War. Israel, Palestine, Genocide and The ICJ
The ICJ has released its preliminary decision in response to South Africa’s accusation of Israeli Genocide in Palestine, ruling that there was a plausible case that Israel displayed the intent to execute genocide, and a full hearing will now be required. Whilst this does little to alleviate the immediate suffering of Palestinians, it has sharpened the minds of Israel’s Western backers, who are finally beginning to demand a pathway to peace and a two-state solution. Israel continues to ignore such entreaties, repeating calls for Israeli resettlement of Gaza and the “voluntary” (read involuntary) emigration of the Palestinian population. Interior minister Amichal Ellyahu decided that even this did not go far enough for his liking, calling instead to use Israel’s nuclear arsenal in Gaza, and being suspended in the process. Words matter. Rhetoric and threats of this nature are the only guaranteed way to ensure the Holy Land will never know lasting peace. True friends do not enable the worst impulses and behaviours of their friends, especially during times of crisis. Time will tell if Netanyahu continues to follow this policy of ignoring the wishes of his international allies and biting the hand that feeds.
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